Saturday, 5 June 2010

Coordinated can cut it in Epsom Derby

This year's Epsom Derby is now upon us and even the shrewdest of punters would agree that it is something of a puzzler, with Jan Vaneer finally producing a display over at Leopardstown within the last fortnight that warrants favouritism in a market that is devoid of St Nicholas' Abbey who is missing with a muscle strain. It should be a fantastic day for all those attending, with the sun shining and temperatures expecting to reach as high as 28 degrees. The beer will be flowing, the champagne will be available upon request for the high rollers and the Guinness will be drunk in abundance. Then people will turn their attention to finding a winner in this years Investec Derby, with 12 runners coming to post and 9 or 10 holding some kind of chance to lift this years' newly sculptured trophy. Jan Vaneer has drifted in the market in recent days mostly because of the wide draw it has received in stall 12 - no horse in memory has managed to overcome this berth and land the odds and the bookmakers have been keen to push it out to as long as 3/1 this morning. However I am still not tempted by the price, because although it was mightily impressive at Leopardstown 13 days ago, the question that all punters must ask is "What did it beat?" and the answer is not a great deal so at the prices has to be swerved. Other runners that have been backed within the last fortnight include Workforce, Midas Touch and most recently Franki's mount Rewilding who brings over some concrete form that the favourite lacks when finishing a close second to tomorrow's French Derby fancy. If Rewilding wins today, this is a big hint to get on Planteur tomorrow - a win would surely be the strongest form possible for the French horse. However for me the price is gone, so wont be backing it at 6/1 when it was double the price a week ago. Workforce is another with a growing reputation, finishing second in the Dante behind another horse destined for Chantilly tomorrow, Cape Blanco. Yet it too has a price which is difficult to believe, almost being backed on reputation when it is clear to me that the horse doesn't hold a straight line. As soon as push comes to shove this horse will buckle under the pressure. Midas Touch has been running well on the gallops and is certainly a live contender for the main honours at a backable 9/1 however its form line from the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial took a notable dent only last night when Address Unknown, second to Midas Touch, was easily beaten over at The Curragh by several horses that can be classed as average at best. As such I have backed Coordinated Cut at 25/1 each way to land the spoils. Finishing only 3/4 length behind Workforce in the Dante, and going off at a shorter price, surely 25/1 is a massive error in judgement. With scope of plenty of improvement, and the longer trip on firmer ground, I am firmly of the belief that this will be more than a match for most, and can certainly turn the tables on Workforce. It may not win, but I think its an each way steal, and with a bit of luck in running can steal this from its more fancied runners. As for other runners, Teds Spread needs an extra 10 miles on heavy ground to stand any chance and Buzzword fans will be left silenced as it finds the field too strong.

1pt E/W Coordinated Cut 25/1 1/4 1-3 with Totesport and Bet365

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