Now I'm a huge football fan. And any huge football fan will no doubt be counting down the days until the biggest competition in world sport kicks off in South Africa in June. However as well as cheering on Rooney and the boys until their inevitable downfall in the quarter finals, I also love to seek the value in the various markets that get churned out for the event. Make no mistake, this is a bookmakers dream unless England win the thing - patriotism always leads to gambles on England in various forms whether it be winner, top goal scorer, match betting; people don't like opposing England. And whilst many pundits think this is the best opportunity of lifting a trophy since 1996, I don't agree. My first problem is concerning how much we rely on Wayne Rooney to perform. Admittedly every team has its star player - the same can be said about Argentina and Messi - but should he pick up an injury or get sent off, I struggle to see up competing against Spain, Brazil and maybe a couple of others. Also I worry about the centre back pairings that could be thrown up - Terry out of form, Ferdinand a constant injury doubt, King unable to play in every game surely, and Dawson who hasn't got the experience. I just think we will be found out at some stage, and for that reason I wont be backing the three lions to go all the way. Instead I see myself looking at the obvious option that is Spain. Torres and Villa will provide any defence with all sorts of problems, and any midfield that can do without Fabregas or Arteta are surely going to be difficult to compete against in the middle. Although their defence may be suspect, and at 4/1 aren't exactly the biggest price selection ever, I think they are clearly the best team in the world and with their recent European Championship win have lost the "bottler" tag that has dogged them in previous tournaments. Looking for alternative wagers, I must admit that although I don't fancy Argentina to win the thing, due to the draw they must be fancied to make a run, and for that reason I backed Messi several months ago each way for the golden boot at 14s. I can see him getting as many as 4 or 5 in the group stages alone looking at the teams he has to face, and his performance against Arsenal showed just how clinical he can be when at his very best. How will the likes of South Aftica be able to cope with his supreme talent? Put simply they won't and for me providing he doesn't get injured he is a confident selection to at least return the place money. He's only 5/1 with Sky bet to score in all three group games, and if he managed that it would put any backer in the position they could lay it off if required.