Tuesday 18 May 2010

US Open 2010

The 110th US Open Championship will be played at Pebble Beach in California from 17-20th June, and is now only a couple of weeks away. Where else can any golf pundit start at the moment, than by analysing the chances of Tiger Woods?. He is currently available at a best price of 6/1 which although significantly bigger than his US Masters outright mark, is still too short. There is little doubt that Tiger at his best would be a 6/4 shot for this competition and I can hear his backers now remarking that this course is set up perfectly for his game. But that was the old Tiger Woods, and since coming back this year, has looked a shadow of his former self. His performance at Quail Hollow was unbelievably bad, and his second round could probably be considered amongst the worst of his career - going from +2 to +9 in a matter of holes on the back nine was for me the sporting collapse of the year, a man with such mental toughness falling to pieces on global TV was compelling but for any true golf fan, difficult to believe. Then his display at The Players Championship was only a slight improvement - granted he had only won the event once previously and expectations of success this year lower than ever, but when he walked injured off the course on day four he looked a man lost. Just think about that...Tiger Woods "lost" on a golf course. In my opinion he isn't even the best player on tour now, and when the competition sets foot onto the first green at Pebble Beach, the majority will see Big Phil Mickleson as the main threat, especially coming off the back of his US Masters triumph. He himself has overcome personal difficulties over the last 18 months, but has come through it with dignity - Tiger Woods take note! However he appears to suffer from a touch of "seconditis" in this event holding a record 5 runner up finishes so I have decided to look elsewhere.
How about possible dangers to Phil? From our side of the pond, Lee Westwood has been in great form recently in both majors and The Players, and its surely a matter of time before he overcomes his jitters on the final day. In fact, if you back him you almost want him to be a couple of shots off the pace on the final day, so he doesn't feel the pressure that he notable gets effected with then leading. Two players in the field that I have backed that have won this event twice, and arguably are in better form at the moment than they were in the years that they lifted the trophy. Ernie Els won this tournament in 1994 and 1997 and has been having a renaissance in recent months, and was one of the leading contenders this year for the US Masters until John Daly cursed him by identifying him as a possible winner. Retief Goosen completed the double thanks to wins in 2001 and 2004 and has been a model of consistency this season, playing well in both European and PGA tour fields. Anyone looking for a "retirement buster" price could do worse than looking at US player Ryan Moore - this is a young man with great talent who is still very much under-rated despite winning in big name US tournaments. Although he hasn't won since 2009 he too has been consistent in 2010 - Tied 10th in this years US Masters shows he can mix it with the big guns, and three other top 15 finishes stateside illustrates he loves playing in front of a home crowd. Plus he finished tied 10th just last year in this event, so with more experience under his belt I see an even better finish this time around - back him each way, he'd going to win a big tournament soon.

1pt Retief Goosen 33/1 1-5 SkyBet
1pt Ernie Els 20/1 1-5 generally
0.75 pt Ryan Moore 100/1 1-5 generally

No comments:

Post a Comment